Tin: Domestic And Foreign Inventories in Low Tin Prices Are Rising

In August 2021, spot tin prices in Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Exchange Center showed strong overall performance, with the main transaction range between 234250-250,500 yuan/ton. Tin prices rose sharply, the market supply is tight, holding merchants to maintain premium shipping, traders between the inquiry is positive, not many goods, downstream enterprises fear high on-demand procurement, less procurement, the market as a whole light transaction.

Tin fundamental analysis

Refining tin production in China

According to the data, the refined tin production in July 2021 was 11,324 tons, 19.62% less than that in June. The reasons for the decrease in domestic refined tin production in July are as follows: the reduction caused by routine maintenance of yunnan refineries; Secondly, due to overseas epidemic and export restrictions, tin concentrate supply is tight.

China's refined tin imports

据中国海关的数据,在7月20日21, China imported 135 tons of refined tin, 14.6% less than the previous month, 95.1% less than the previous year; The export volume of refined tin was 2,276 tons, up 27.0% month-on-month and 544.8% year-on-year. In July, the average price difference between external plate and internal plate widened again to more than 26,000 yuan/ton, prompting exports to increase again. From January to July this year, China imported 2,760 tons of refined tin, down 77.2% year on year; The cumulative export of refined tin 10,730 tons, up 331.3% year on year; Cumulative net exports amounted to 7,970 tons. This year, China has rapidly become a net exporter of refined tin, mainly because the overseas refined tin inventory has fallen to a historical low and the supply shortage in the overseas market is serious, which makes the domestic import window open and export profits continue to suffer a large loss.

LME, inventory of previous period

LME tin stocks fell to 1,555 tonnes at the end of August 2021 from 1,197 tonnes in the previous period. At present, Shanghai and London tin inventory is low, we see Shanghai tin spot discount in June began to rise significantly, also at a very high level in history. This shows that under the background of absolute low inventory, both Shanghai and London tin spot are in a very tight state.

Tin city consumption analysis

Tin plate import and export

In July 2021, China's tin plate exports totaled 97,100 tons, with a year-on-year decline of 8.12%. From January to July 2021, China's tin plate exports totaled 661,400 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.93%.

In July 2021, China's tinplate imports totaled 1549.2 tons, with a year-on-year decline of 7.27%. From January to July of 2021, China's tinplate imports totaled 13,638.4 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 50.58%.

The terminal consumption

Tin has a wide range of uses, and the terminal field is mainly concentrated in the consumer electronics industry, where the proportion of tin solder required is up to 65%. At present, the prospect of the electronics industry is more optimistic. 5G mobile communications, artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things will drive the development of the semiconductor industry in the future. With the construction of 5G facilities and the application and promotion of 5G mobile phones and other terminal equipment, solder consumption has a certain growth space.

Tin prices are climbing, hitting another record high. The current global tin shortage is likely to continue. At present, the output of tin mines in Indonesia and Malaysia is limited due to the epidemic blockade, indicating that the shortage of mine end will continue. Domestic continuous interference by power and other problems, especially domestic tin ingot production yunnan and Guangxi. At present, domestic and foreign tin inventory is at a very low level, spot circulation to maintain a tight state, the market long funds come into the market, driving the tin price strong pull up. Overall, in view of the current short-term supply is still tight, tin prices later trend or continue to run high.